{"id":2855,"date":"2023-09-08T19:42:04","date_gmt":"2023-09-08T19:42:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/?p=2855"},"modified":"2023-09-08T19:42:04","modified_gmt":"2023-09-08T19:42:04","slug":"inaccurate-population-data-could-negatively-affect-policy-expert-non-permanent-residents-missed-cibc-report-says-the-ottawa-gang-that-count-properly","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/?p=2855","title":{"rendered":"Inaccurate population data could negatively affect policy: expert &#8211;Non-permanent residents missed, CIBC report says: The Ottawa Gang that Count Properly"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<h1 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Inaccurate population data could negatively affect policy: expert<\/h1>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Non-permanent residents missed, CIBC report says<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul><li>National Post<\/li><li>1 Sep 2023<\/li><li>Naimul Karim Financial Post nkarim@postmedia.com<\/li><\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>There are about a million more non-permanent residents in Canada than the official number that is widely quoted and used for planning purposes by various authorities, according to a recent report by CIBC World Markets Inc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If ignored, the \u201cundercounting\u201d could hurt Canada\u2019s housing and labour policies, said economist Benjamin Tal, who wrote the Aug. 30 report, Counting heads in Canada \u2014 a conundrum. Statistics Canada keeps track of population counts in two ways. The first is the census, last published in 2021, which indicated there were about 925,000 non-permanent residents in Canada. It also provides quarterly and annual estimates of population growth. This estimate, Tal said, suggests the population of non-permanent residents in 2021 was about 1.17 million, or 250,000 more than what the census stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Statistics Canada said these estimates are based on post-census coverage studies of a representative sample of individuals to determine how many individuals were missed or counted more than once.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In addition, the CIBC report said that between 2017 and 2022, there were at least 750,000 non-permanent residents, which represent foreign workers, international students, holders of Minister\u2019s Permits and refugees, who overstayed in Canada. Tal said Statistics<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canada has yet to reflect these numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Statistics Canada\u2019s current system assumes that temporary resident visa holders have left the country 30 days after the expiry of their visa. The agency refers to this as an interruption period. However, Tal said there is a huge group of people who continue to stay in the country while applying for work visas, extension of resident visas and permanent visas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>While these residents are accounted for once their permit to stay is renewed, they are not counted \u2014 after the 30-day period \u2014 until their application is approved by government.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As such, to come up with the 750,000 number, Tal looked at the gap between the applications submitted to Canada and the number of approvals between 2017 and 2022. His report doesn\u2019t indicate how many left the country during this period.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In total, he said Canada has undercounted the number of temporary residents by at least a million, and that since the country\u2019s housing agency follows the census for its policies, the undercounting could worsen the existing housing crisis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u201cDemand is stronger than what official numbers are telling you and that\u2019s why we are approaching zero vacancy rate in rental apartments,\u201d Tal said. \u201cWe don\u2019t have enough of them.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He added that the undercounting could also have \u201cmajor implications\u201d on any government plan to put a cap on the number of international students.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Housing minister Sean Fraser on Aug. 22 said the government would need to do some \u201cserious thinking\u201d when it comes to the international student program, which has had immense growth in concentrated<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>areas, as part of the government\u2019s plans to ease existing housing pressures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Statistics Canada defended its numbers. Spokesperson Melissa Gammage said the agency wasn\u2019t aware of the data sources or the methodology used by CIBC to come up with the 750,000 figure. \u201cIt\u2019s true that the level of coverage of NPRS (non-permanent residents) in censuses can be more challenging than that of other groups,\u201d she said in a statement. \u201cHowever, after each census, Statcan conducts rigorous coverage studies to estimate the level of coverage of the census. The results are added to demographic estimates so that they consider NPRS missed by the census. This is the usual process of producing demographic estimates.&#8221;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gammage also said that from Sept. 27 onward, the agency will publish new data tables on non-permanent residents that will include interruption period rules, more details on NPRS, such as their estimated numbers and permit types, as well as other \u201cimprovements.\u201d The new approach was previously planned and not in response to the CIBC report.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tal welcomed the changes. \u201cWe are blessed with one of the best statistical agencies in the world. We are heavy users of Stats Canada\u2019s data,\u201d he said. \u201cThe note was not aimed to criticize, but rather to point to some issues that need to be looked at.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bank of Nova Scotia analyst Rebekah Young said there should be an urgency in addressing data challenges with respect to population estimates, but added that it would be a \u201cstretch\u201d to put too much blame on an undercount for today\u2019s strained infrastructure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full\"><a href=\"http:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/immigrants-create-jobs.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"544\" height=\"534\" src=\"http:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/immigrants-create-jobs.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-2856\" srcset=\"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/immigrants-create-jobs.jpg 544w, https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/09\/immigrants-create-jobs-300x294.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 544px) 100vw, 544px\" \/><\/a><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Inaccurate population data could negatively affect policy: expert Non-permanent residents missed, CIBC report says National Post 1 Sep 2023 Naimul Karim Financial Post nkarim@postmedia.com There are about a million more non-permanent residents in Canada than the official number that is widely quoted and used for planning purposes by various authorities, according to a recent report [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2138,2139,2140],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2855"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2855"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2855\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2857,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2855\/revisions\/2857"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2855"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2855"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/canadafirst.nfshost.com\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2855"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}